NostraDumbass Predicts the Future
I’ve never really been very good at predicting the future but then history has shown us that neither has anyone else ever been especially good at it including Nostradamus Most of whose writings dealt with disasters, such as plagues, earthquakes, wars, floods, invasions, murders and droughts. To sum up Nostradamus: “A disaster now and then? Yeah, you’re gonna have that.”
As Yogi Berra once famously said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Just ask the NSA and the CIA who in Dec. 2000, several months before the 9/11 attacks, collectively issued an 85-page document predicting what the world would look like in 2015. It’s not laughable but it’s not all that accurate either.
The Apple Watch
I predict that Apple will introduce the Apple Watch early this year and that people in the States will be able to buy one before Valentine’s Day February 14th. And I predict that they will be called Apple Watches and not iWatches. And I predict they will fail miserably.
The cheapest one will be around $350 but pricer ones will be available too. Apple is rumored to be making gold watches that will sell for 4 to 5 thousand dollars. Daring Fireball’s John Gruber who has friends high in Apples’s software engineering departments claims Apple intends to market some of its gold watches for as much as $10,000.
The Apple watches are every bit as attractive as you would expect pieces of jewelry to be that’s made by Apple. You can see all twenty-two models of Apple watches here including the Mickey Mouse model and some gold ones as well.
Will Brad Pitt and and the rest of the coolest people on the planet wear this? Not unless Apple pays them to and then not for long. Would Steve Jobs have worn one? Well, he might have worn the Mickey Mouse one.
As gorgeous as these watches are and as cleverly as they no doubt will be designed, I predict they will be a bust.
I predict that Apple Pay will, by the end of 2015, be deemed an unmitigated success. Just yesterday New York City’s Department of Finance announced it would begin allowing people to pay parking tickets with Apple Pay.
Apple says it has partnerships with 220,000 stores. A partial list includes Bloomingdales, Macy’s, Duane Reade, McDonald’s, Sephora, Petco, Panera Bread, Staples, Nike, Walgreens, Subway, Whole Foods and of course Apple’s own online Apple Store. Chain grocers Winn-Dixie and Albertsons just last week came onboard and Disney World signs up next week.
Apple Pay will only work with iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, iPad Air 2, iPad mini 3 and the yet to be released Apple Watch (see above). It supports Master Card, Visa and American Express issued by almost all major American Banks.
For now Apple Pay is only available in the US but it is set to launch in the UK in the first quarter of this year.
Xiaomi is a Chinese electronics company that is very soon to be a major player in the smartphone, tablet, PC and TV market in the US, UK and the rest of the Western world.
Although you may have never heard of them, Xiaomi is the third largest smartphone maker in the world followed by Lenovo and LG at fourth and fifth place respectively. Samsung remains in first place world-wide despite declining shipment volume, followed by Apple in second place.
While Apple sells more smartphones and tablets in the US by far than does Samsung, both Apple and Samsung better be looking over their shoulders at Xiaomi.
In the very near future, Xiaomi will begin selling a smartphone here in the States that uses a variation of Android that is far more popular in Asia than any other Android phone.
I predict that Samsung will lose significant market share to Xiaomi in 2015. And I further predict that by the end of 2015 no one in America will wondering how to pronounce Xiaomi. By the way, it sounds like “SHOW me” if you pronounce the s in show as a z.
Move Over iMessage, Snapchat, WhatsApp et. al.
I predict that by the end of 2015 we will all be as familiar with Line a free to use Android and iPhone messaging and video calling app from Japan and WeChat, a messing service from Tencent in China as we are today with WhatsApp and Snapchat.
2014 was a horrible year for Bitcoin. And I predict that 2015 won’t be much better for the beleaguered Internet currency. I don’t mean to suggest that Bitcoin is going to fade away and die in 2015. After all NY City is about to allow traffic violators to pay their fines with both Apple Pay and Bitcoins and a host of other reputable merchants have recently agreed to exchange their dollars and pounds for Bitcoins.
I predict that Bitcoin will become a viable currency but it won’t happen in 2015.
In November of 2013 Bitcoin soared to $1,100 but the price of a Bitcoin opened on the first day of last year at $770 and today one Bitcoin is worth $316.37.
Until the volatility of this currency is stabilized by attaching it to a real-world commodity it is worthless as an investment.
I predict that one year from today Bitcoin will be trading at or about the same price it is today.
You Will Be Hacked
I predict that Sony’d will become a part of the English language lexicon. To Be Sony’d will mean to be hacked.
And I predict that dozens of major companies will have their servers and networks compromised in 2015. Hackers will penetrate even the most supposedly secure government and private enterprise computer networks.
I recently wrote about using Wi-Fi to grab files from my PC to my Mac. I could do this because they share the same Wi-Fi network. The Internet is synonymous to Wi-Fi. If you’re on-line on your phone or computer then you’re on this giant world-wide network and you could be Sony’d at any time.
I predict that by the end of 2015 the Republican Party Platform Committee will officially repudiate it’s stance against human involvement in Climate Change.
I predict that by the end of 2015 the Republican Party will officially repudiate its opposition to marriage equality.
I predict that by the end of this new year the leaders of the Republican Party will begin to show some compassion for undocumented workers contributing to our robustly growing economy.
So there are my, NostraDumbass’, fearless Tech and Political predictions for 2015. We’ll revisit this page a year from now and see how I did.